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The Times (and Lines) They are a Changing, part Deux
September 04, 2006

In a previous article we looked at comparing lines based on last yearís final ratings with this yearís CFB opening lines. Had you bet against the double digit moves, youíd have gone 4-1 ATS. Vandy, USC, Texas and Memphis all covered. The lone loser was La. Tech.

Letís use the same process to analyze Week 1 in the NFL. More parity means smaller line moves so weíll lower the criteria to differences of at least a TD. There are four games, with last yearís (LY) first and this yearís opening line (OL) second:

Miami @ Pittsburgh (pre-appendectomy) -14 (LY), -5 (OL)

Denver -11, -3 1/2 @ St. Louis

Seattle -15, -3 1/2 @ Detroit

San Diego -13, -2 1/2 @ Oakland

Again letís use an example of a teamís last game for further illustration. The Steelers were 4 1/2 point favís in the neutral site Super Bowl. Throw in home field advantage, and they have opened as smaller favís over the Dolphins. No line value to be had by playing Miami, Rams, Lions or Raiders.

Reed Hogben M.D.

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